2 Best NBA Finals Bets and Predictions for Game 5 Between the Pacers and Thunder

Going into the fourth quarter of Game 4, the Oklahoma City Thunder trailed 87-80. They responded by dominating the final 12 minutes with a score of 31-17, taking out the Indiana Pacers 111-104. Oklahoma City avoided the dreaded 3-1 series deficit, tying it up at 2-2. With the Thunder back home for Game 5, what can we expect for tonight's clash?

Which bets stand out tonight for Game 5? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA betting odds and see where we can find value.

Pacers at Thunder NBA Finals Game 5 Betting Picks

Thunder -9.5 (-108)

Similar to OKC's first two home games of the series, the spread is heavily leaning in the Thunder's favor at 9.5 points. With Oklahoma City 1-1 against the spread (ATS) in the Paycom Center during the Finals, how should we bet the spread for Game 5?

The Pacers had their worst three-point percentage of the series in Game 4, making only 11 of 36 attempts (30.6%). Plus, the Thunder posted the most points in the paint of the series at 50. A series-high 38 free throw attempts from Oklahoma City also played a major factor. What's the chance of all three categories keeping up in Game 5?

Several areas are becoming clear advantages for the Thunder through four games. Despite allowing the third-highest three-point shot frequency of the postseason, opponents are shooting only 33.7% from beyond the arc against OKC in the playoffs. Indiana has been the best shooting team of the postseason with a 39.3% mark from deep. However, the Pacers are shooting a mediocre 36.6% from three in this series. This includes making only 20 of their last 63 attempts (31.7%). Even Indiana's volume is down to 31.5 three-point shots per game over the last two compared to 39.5 in the first two matchups of the Finals. Regression may have hit at the worst time.

In addition, Oklahoma City has won the rebound battle by an average of +8.0 over the last three matchups. The Thunder have controlled the paint battle in three of four games, and the Pacers are totaling a measly 38.5 points in the paint per game in this series. If the threes aren't falling for Indiana, the offense will be hard-pressed to do much of anything considering OKC's paint defense. We've seen the Pacers struggle to score around the rim, especially bigs like Myles Turner -- who has shot 6 of 21 over the last two (28.6%).

Ultimately, I believe we've officially entered the danger zone for Indiana's legendary run. The Thunder are simply dominating the interior and have now figured out how to cut Indiana's volume and efficiency from deep. Oklahoma City has won the glass battle in three straight while reaching at least 30 free throw attempts in every game since Game 2, too. Give me the Thunder to cover their third game since Game 2. Oklahoma City winning the series 4-2 now has the shortest line (+102) among the NBA Finals correct series score odds.

Under 224.5 Points (-110)

The under isn't the most ideal pairing with OKC covering a healthy 9.5-point spread. However, this side is 3-1 in the Finals, and the under hit in both of the Thunder's cover -- which included a 10-point line in Game 2.

We mentioned concerns for the Pacers' offense. Scoring around the rim has been a struggle, and their three-point efficiency has been on a slide.

While Oklahoma City has shot over 38.0% from three in two of the last three, its plan was as clear as day on the road. The Thunder looked to live in the painted area, totaling their most points in the paint of the series at 48 and 50. This led OKC to attempting only 19.0 three-point shots per game over the previous two.

This side is 3-1 four games into the series. Even with the line dropping to 224.5, the numbers still point to the under remaining a trend.

Each team's three-point attempts falling of recent plays a huge role in this pick. I have a ton of confidence in Oklahoma City's defense right now. The Thunder have won the turnover and rebounding battles in three of four matchups, too. Controlling the possession battle helps OKC control the pace, slowing the game when needed.

Indiana finding a way to speed up Game 5 is the biggest threat to the under. I'm still expecting the Thunder to play at their pace for most of the game considering their success on the defensive end and in the possession categories.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.