2 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Monday 6/23/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles

Under 5.5 Runs in the First 5 Innings (-114)

Betting on Patrick Corbin and Trevor Rogers in 2025? It's not for the faint of heart, but I think it makes sense.

Corbin has actually been decent this season for the Texas Rangers, pitching to a 4.34 expected ERA (xERA) -- a significantly better clip than anything he's done since 2019. Prior to giving up four earned runs last time out, Corbin hadn't surrendered more than three earned runs in a start this season. Aside from the fact this game is in hitter-friendly Camden Yards, this is a nice matchup for Corbin as the Baltimore Orioles are dead last in wOBA versus LHP (.270).

Rogers has made only two starts this season (8 1/3 innings), but he's got some enticing numbers in that small sample, including a 24.3% strikeout rate and 11.4% swinging-strike rate. He's also in a friendly matchup against a Texas offense that ranks 25th in wOBA against southpaws (.280).

With two respectable pitchers going against a pair of low-end offenses, I like the hurlers to have the upper hand early.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago White Sox

Under 9.0 Runs (-102)

Eduardo Rodriguez and Shane Smith will be on the bump today in Chicago, and both pitchers can have success.

Smith certainly has a difficult matchup with an Arizona Diamondbacks offense that is third in wOBA (.339), but I think he's up to the task. For the season, he owns a 4.30 SIERA, 21.3% K rate and 12.0% swinging-strike rate. That swinging-strike rate hints at more punchouts in the future, and Smith has been particularly good at home, holding opponents to a .268 wOBA in the split.

Rodriguez should be able to thrive against the Chicago White Sox. He's upped his game of late. Across his past three starts, he's registered a 12.7% swinging-strike rate and allowed only five runs over 16 frames. He's really enjoyed his travels, too, as he has a 3.64 xFIP on the road, compared to a 4.62 xFIP at home.

Admittedly, both bullpens terrify me as they each sit in the bottom 13 in xFIP for the season. But they've been better of late -- with Arizona 6th and Chicago 20th in xFIP over the past 14 days -- and I think the game under is the way to go rather than under 4.5 runs in the first five (+110).

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Which bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.