The Biggest NFL Draft Busts of the Last 50 Years

By Kurt Boyer
Updated: March 19, 2024

Let's try to rattle off some of the 1st-overall NFL Draft picks over the past 10 years. No particular order. Just shout 'em out. Okay, we got Baker Mayfield. Trevor Lawrence. Um, Jared Goff? Yep. Kyler Murray was a 1st-overall. So was Myles Garrett … and Jameis Winston.

Each of these dudes already has something in common. They've all been to at least 1 Pro Bowl—many of them multiple. And most would be considered "good players" by NFL fans. We've left off a couple of 1st-overall picks, though … very recent ones.

The previous 2 first-overall picks in the NFL Draft were Alabama quarterback Bryce Young (2023 to Carolina) and Georgia defensive end Travon Walker (2022 to Jacksonville). Ask anyone. No one considers these guys "good players." We may have to break out the b-word here: bust.

Admitting the Previous 2 First-Overall Picks in the NFL Draft Were Major Busts

2022 NFL Draft - Jacksonville Jaguars Select DE Travon Walker

Search for a picture of Jags' 2022 first-overall pick, Travon Walker, and you immediately get bust vibes. He doesn't look confident, which is very fitting for a player graded 53.9 by Pro Football Focus.

53.9 is horrendous. It's well below a starting level in the NFL. He ranks 90th out of 112 qualifying players at his position. There is a bit of a discrepancy between Walker's on-field numbers in 2023 (which were decent) and his awful grading by one of the most respected football analytics companies in the industry. The same thing occurred in college, where Walker looked good on the field at Georgia but was not backed up by advanced stats.

Granted, 2022 was a weak draft class in the NFL, but Travon Walker? That guy wasn't even on the radar of most NFL fans before Day 1 of the draft. Did the Jags make a huge mistake drafting this bum?

Walker really disappointed in 2022—a season in which the Jags found success without much help from him. He started 14 games for Jacksonville that year, recording 49 combined tackles, 3.5 sacks, and a pick. That's not terrible, but it's not #1-pick worthy. He took a step forward statistics-wise in 2023, increasing his sacks total to 10.0 despite only netting 3 more tackles (52). What accounts for this spike in production? The opposing offenses' schemes.

In 2023, Travon Walker benefitted from never being schemed against. As the least intimidating member of that Jags defensive line, Walker picked up a few easy sacks and TFLs as the offensive line's attention was focused elsewhere.

Walker received a 58.0 grade on PFF for his efforts in 2022 and went down to his current 53.9 mark this past season. Not exactly what Jacksonville was looking for when they spent their first-overall pick on him.

What did Jacksonville Miss Out on to Draft Travon Walker?

You can't fault a team for drafting a dud if no one else in the class turned out, but Jacksonville does not have that excuse. Don't bring up other pass rushers drafted in 2022 in Duval, because that's a sore topic around the Jags facility.

Two other pass rushers went in the top-5 of the 2022 NFL Draft and both turned out better than Travon Walker. The glaring example of how Walker is a bust is the guy the Lions drafted immediately after him—Aidan Hutchinson.

"Hutch" plays the exact same position as Walker but does so with the utmost success. After just 2 seasons in the NFL, Hutchinson is widely considered to be a top-10 defensive end—maybe top-5. He was a longshot candidate for Defensive Player of the Year in 2023, finishing just behind guys like JJ Watt and Myles Garrett in the voting.

Hutchinson hit the ground running in 2022, making the all-rookie team with 52 combined tackles, 9 TFLs, 9.5 sacks, and 15 quarterback hits. He also picked off 3 passes and recovered 2 fumbles. The last rookie to get 9.5 sacks and 3 picks in a season was … no one. Hutchinson's rookie year was unprecedented. In fact, 6 other players in the league's storied history have ever posted a 9.5/3 season. The most recent, before Hutchinson, was Chicago's Richard Dent in 1990.

The Michigan native started all 17 games for the Lions once again in 2023 and was an absolute handful for opposing offenses. He received the same treatment any of the great pass rushers receive: double teams on every play. That didn't stop Hutch from wrecking games and living in the opposing backfield.

He racked up 51 combined tackles, 14 TFLs, and 11.5 sacks while defending 7 more passes. Yes, 7! There is a short list of NFL greats throughout the years who can boast a season with 11.5 sacks and 7 passes defensed. Hutchinson did this at age 23, joining Shawne Merriman, Jason Pierre-Paul, Jevon Kearse, and JJ Watt as the youngest players to accomplish this feat.

Hutchinson was voted to his first Pro Bowl in 2023—an accolade that Lions fans are confident is his first of many. Meanwhile, we keep forgetting that Travon Walker is even on the Jaguars team. He's a ghost!

The other pass rusher taken high in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft was standing linebacker Kayvon Thibodeaux out of Oregon. Scooped up by the New York Giants at 5th overall, Thibodeaux has been kept off the field for extended periods with some injury issues but has shown flashes of greatness when he's in the lineup.

In limited time last season, Thibodeaux recorded 13 sacks and forced 3 fumbles. That's decent production, and folks in New York are even grumbling about how he's underperformed relative to his draft position. Imagine how they'd feel in the Big Apple if they wasted a prime pick on someone like Travon Walker. It wouldn't be pretty.

2023 NFL Draft - Carolina Panthers Select QB Bryce Young

We admit it's a little premature to be labeling Travon Walker a bust as he's only had 2 years to prove himself in Duval. This next guy really doesn't deserve the bust label yet as it's been only 1 year, but he sure had the bustiest rookie season you could imagine. If there was a path toward being the GBOAT (greatest bust of all time), Carolina's Bryce Young has taken the first several steps.

Panthers Trade up for the Undersized Bryce Young

NFL Draft busts are devastating to an NFL franchise for two reasons: wasted capital on the pick and blown opportunity cost of not getting someone else. In Carolina's case in 2023, they burned through extra capital by dealing a couple of their own picks plus a good, young wide receiver prospect to get "their guy."

The Chicago Bears owned the #1-overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft after a terrible season. The first couple of players on the board were quarterbacks, though, and the Bears already had Justin Fields. Chicago struck up a deal with the Panthers, swapping the selection with Carolina's first-round pick (which was #9). The Panthers wanted their shot at taking 1 of the top-2 quarterbacks in the draft— Alabama's Bryce Young or Ohio State's CJ Stroud. At the time, most experts considered it a toss-up as to which was better (there is no mistaking it now).

Check out their rookie numbers:

In trading up, the Panthers gave Chicago a promising, young receiver in DJ Moore and their 1st-round pick for the 2024 NFL Draft, which would wind up being the #1-overall pick again (because Carolina was 2-15 in 2023 with their shiny new quarterback).

Two first-round picks and a good receiver to draft this guy? Oh, Carolina … that's bad.

Bryce Young was a champion in college in Nick Saban's excellent Alabama program. He was undersized, though, standing 5'10 and weighing right around 200 pounds; Young would join Kyler Murray as the 2 shortest quarterbacks to be drafted since the merger in 1967. Many experts warned that Young didn't have "NFL size." The Panthers obviously weren't concerned (but maybe they are now).

Bryce Young won the 2021 Heisman Trophy and was a proven winner with the Tide. He threw for over 8,000 yards between his sophomore and junior seasons at Alabama, owning an incredible 79-12 TD-INT ratio in that span.

CJ Stroud (who looks more like a quarterback at 6'3) was a 2-time Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year and also threw for over 8,000 yards in 2 seasons in Columbus. Stroud's TD-INT ratio of 85-12 was even better than Young's. The two quarterbacks put up very similar numbers, but Young had the championship … and the Heisman.

As you can see above, Young's Panthers were a miserable 2-14 with him under center and 2-15 overall. His head coach, Frank Reich, was fired after a 1-10 start. Young didn't have a whole lot of time in the pocket, getting sacked 62 times and leading the NFL in sack yardage lost, but he wasn't effective when he did have time, either.

For NFL quarterbacks last year who played at least 15 games, 2,877 passing yards is the 2nd fewest among all of them. Only Desmond Ridder (ATL) had fewer, with 2,836, but he only played 15 games for Atlanta. Young played in 16 games for Carolina.

Needless to say, 2023 was a disaster in Charlotte. The Panthers gave up so much to get their guy and now don't even have a 1st-round pick to further build upon in 2024.

Meanwhile, the Panthers had to watch as CJ Stroud finished inside the top 10 in passing yards and led the Texans to the playoffs. More yards, a better completion percentage, over twice as many touchdowns, and half the interceptions. CJ Stroud is him. Bryce Young is a boy on a man's field.

Biggest NFL Draft Busts in League History

2019 NFL Draft - Oakland Raiders Select DE Clelin Ferrell

Many highly-touted edge-rushing prospects were on the board when the Raiders made the 4th-overall pick in 2019. In fact, the only edge rusher taken before Ferrell was Nick Bosa. The Raiders (still in Oakland at the time) had their pick of any outside linebacker or D-end in college football, save one.

Kentucky's Josh Allen—no, not the quarterback, an outside linebacker and 2018 Nagurski and Bednarik Award winner—was still available. Allen was widely considered the second-best defensive player in the class behind Nick Bosa. Oakland wasn't interested.

Michigan's Rashan Gary—an explosive edge rushing hybrid who amassed 23 TFLs and 9.5 sacks in 34 college games—was also sitting out there waiting patiently to be drafted. A 10-foot broad jump, 4.58 40m time at 277 pounds, a 38-inch vertical. There wasn't anything about Rashan Gary's body to dislike. He did score a very low 9 on the Wonderlic, however, which scared Oakland away.

Okay, so no to Allen and Gary. How about an inside linebacker instead? LSU's Devin White was the 2018 Butkus Award winner and had all the requisites for a promising NFL career.

Nope! Get these talented, freak athletes out of my face. The Oakland Raiders decided on one of Dabo's guys—DE Clelin Ferrell, a 3-year starter and 2-time champion at Clemson.

Ferrell had some decent size, standing 6'4 and weighing about 260. His athleticism didn't wow you like those other guys did, though. Two factors immensely impacted the Raiders' decision to draft Clelin Ferrell. One, he's a little smarty pants who scored a 21 on the Wonderlic. Two, he was a 2-time champion in college.

This is the Bill Belichick method of drafting. On countless occasions, The Hoodie has drafted an underwhelming athlete with a high football IQ and turned him into a Pro Bowler.

It makes sense that GMs and coaches around the league are always trying to emulate Belichick's method, but haven't we seen this movie enough times by now to understand that only Belichick can pull off the Belichick method?

His former assistants never win as head coaches, and GMs who try to draft sleepers get egg on their faces.

Clelin Ferrell Had One Good Season for the Raiders

Drafted #4-overall, Ferrell was entitled to a whopping $31.2 million in guaranteed money, with $20.8 million of that coming at signing. The length of the contract was 4 years. Clelin Ferrell enjoyed 1 decent season, just 1, his rookie year.

Ferrell started 15 games on the line for the Raiders in 2019—their final season in Oakland. He totaled 4.5 sacks and made 38 combined tackles—8 of which were TFLs. These are decent numbers, not great. Ferrell was not even a part of the All-Rookie team in 2019.

The Raiders needed to see growth from their guy in 2020, but instead, regression hit. Ferrell was a bit of a one-trick pony, and the league figured him out. The Raiders were only able to start their expensive pony for 11 games in 2020. He was the 8th-highest-paid player on the team that season.

Ferrell then made 0 starts in 2021 and only 4 starts last season. This marked the end of Ferrell's rookie deal. The Raiders had a team option for an extra year, but they declined it, cutting Clelin Ferrell loose. Ferrell signed with the Commanders and played part-time in 2023, recording 4 sacks and 26 combined tackles. He's a mere depth-chart filler at this point.

The Raiders Passed on Some Major Talent to Draft Clelin Ferrell

NFL Draft busts only sting if there were some good players drafted later who panned out. Teams' 7th-round picks "bust" all the time, but it isn't newsworthy because they could not have done better with what was left on the board. In 2019, the Raiders could have done a whole lot better drafting #4-overall.

You know that feeling when everyone around you is saying you're wrong, but you stick with your gut and make the contrarian move anyway … and it backfires? Yeah, the Raiders know that feeling all too well.

Nearly every promising player at linebacker or end drafted in the first round after Clelin Ferrell became a stud. Devin White made the 2019 All-Rookie team and went on to play in the 2021 Pro Bowl for Tampa Bay. Josh Allen (the linebacker) was also on that 2019 All-Rookie team and even made the Pro Bowl in his rookie season.

The Packers took Rashan Gary down at #12-overall. While Gary hasn't won any awards, he has amassed 15.5 sacks with 3 forced fumbles in his last 25 games and is graded a very solid 82.9 on Pro Football Focus.

Down at #16-overall, the Panthers struck gold in Florida State D-end Brian Burns. Burns has really come into his own the past 2 seasons, averaging over 10 sacks and qualifying for the Pro Bowl each year.

In a draft class with so much talent at edge rusher—the Oakland Raiders passed on all of it to take Clelin Ferrell. That, friends, is the epitome of a big NFL Draft bust.

1999 NFL Draft – Cincinnati Bengals Select QB Akili Smith

It's the year 1999. "Smooth" by Santana is being played everywhere. Any Given Sunday just came out. And all of the execs around the NFL are giving Chargers GM Bobby Beathard some good-natured ribbing about his decision to draft QB Ryan Leaf last April.

Rumor has it that Bengals GM Mike Brown was laughing the hardest. What's that saying? Karma is ... not nice.

The 1999 draft class was loaded with quarterback talent. The Cleveland Browns took Heisman Trophy winner Tim Couch #1-overall. Tim Couch is considered, by some, to be a draft bust. He may be, but he's not even close to the biggest disappointment in this draft, so we'll glaze over his slightly-disappointing 5-year NFL career.

The Philadelphia Eagles had the 2nd pick and took 6-time Pro Bowler QB Donovan McNabb.

Yet Another Oregon Quarterback Who Doesn't Pan Out in the NFL

On the clock, the Cincinnati Bengals. What are they looking for? A franchise quarterback. Who are they leaning toward? Oregon QB Akili Smith.

Smith was a wildly talented kid in multiple sports. He was drafted 207th overall in the MLB Draft but then threw for 3,763 yards and 32 touchdowns in his senior season at Oregon and decided to go pro on the gridiron instead of the diamond.

First, let's talk about the numbers from Smith's short NFL career, and then we'll go back and explain why the pick is even worse than it initially sounds.

Akili Smith is among the most disappointing of the NFL Draft busts, lasting only parts of 4 seasons and starting 17 games with a dismal 5-13 touchdown-interception ratio.

In 2000, the Bengals gave Smith the keys to the franchise, and he crashed the family car. Smith appeared in 12 games, threw for just 1,253 yards, and completed a meager 44.2% of his passes. Smith's struggles were not physical in nature. He wasn't grasping the complex NFL schemes quickly at all. It was widely reported that his lack of motivation and work ethic held him back.

Smith's difficulties were not just limited to the field. In his personal life, he was known for having a difficult personality and was often seen as arrogant and entitled. Some believe that his inflated ego led him to feel entitled to NFL success without putting in the necessary work.

Smith's plight sounds remarkably similar to that of current Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray. Murray could have also gone pro in baseball (or Esports) but chose the fast track to guaranteed money by declaring for the NFL Draft after he broke out at Oklahoma and won the Heisman Trophy.

Murray's suspect work ethic and study habits are the catalyst of much discussion in the desert.

The Bengals Gave up 9 NFL Draft Picks for Akili Smith

Yep, you read that correctly. Here's the story of how the Akili Smith pick was more devastating to the Bengals’ future than meets the eye.

Mike Ditka was coaching the New Orleans Saints in 1999 and loved him some Ricky Williams—the tailback from Texas. Ditka's Saints were set to pick 5th in the 1999 NFL Draft, but the legendary coach was afraid Williams wouldn't be there at #5. He needed to move up.

As the story goes, Ditka contacts the Bengals and offers them a package to move up to the #3 pick. Cincinnati says no. Ditka increases the offer. Still no.

Mike Ditka goes crazy. He offers the farm 9 draft picks, just to move up 2 spots for Ricky Williams. Sorry, coach, but no.

The hilarity of it all is that Ricky Williams fell to #5 anyway. Ditka got his guy - who turned out to be a Pro Bowler - and it didn't cost him anything extra.

The Bengals got their guy, a 0-time Pro Bowler, for the opportunity cost of 9 draft picks. This is one of the worst NFL Draft blunders in league history. Classic Bengals move.

What the Cincinnati Bengals Missed out on in the 1999 NFL Draft

By the way, who else was still on the board in 1999 when the Bengals were on the clock? Who could they have potentially snagged with some of those Saints' picks had they pulled the trigger on the deal?

Hall-of-Fame running back Edgerrin James, Hall-of-Fame corner Champ Bailey, and 3-time Pro Bowl quarterback Daunte Culpepper.

Cincinnati could have traded down, drafted Culpepper (far superior to Smith), and had 8 extra draft picks to play with over the next two seasons.

There is a reason the Bengals were a complete nonfactor in the NFL until about 4 years ago.

1981 NFL Draft – Green Bay Packers Select QB Rich Campbell

Their 2nd time appearing on this list, the Packers made another big draft blunder back in 1981. Kids today may not realize that the Packers suffered through a prolonged period of suckiness in the 70s and 80s. You're seeing why.

1981 featured a decent draft class, but not for quarterbacks. With very few good options out there, most teams elected to draft players from other positions with their first-round pick.

The Saints took Illinois quarterback Dave Wilson with their supplemental draft pick. Some may not even consider this a true first-round pick.

When it was time for the Packers to pick at #6-overall, they were elated that their guy was still there: Cal QB Rich Campbell.

Campbell had earned the praise of Michigan football coach Bo Schembechler his junior year at the Rose Bowl, causing Bo to say Campbell could "pick [a team] to death with his throwing arm" after nearly leading the Golden Bears to victory over the favored Wolverines.

Rich Campbell turned up the heat his senior season, completing 71% of his passes and even avoiding death when an errant hang glider nearly decapitated the 6'4 quarterback mid-game. Campbell had a firm faith and even flirted with becoming a pastor in high school.

This was the guy the Packers wanted ... nay, needed.

Rich Campbell Posts Some of the Worst NFL Quarterback Numbers Ever

Green Bay basically Aaron Rodgers'ed Campbell, forcing him to sit on the bench for a few years and wait for his opportunity. It worked for Rodgers 30 years later. It definitely did not work for Campbell.

The California kid started a total of 7 games in 4 seasons with the Packers, throwing 68 passes for 386 yards and getting picked off 9 times. 9 times! In 68 pass attempts. That's a career interception percentage of 13.2%—astronomical!

Campbell only got to play in his rookie season (1981) and final season (1984). He threw 0 passes in either 1982 or 1983, relegated only to kneel-down duty in blowout games twice in that 2-year stretch.

After four seasons, Campbell was out of the NFL and decided to explore becoming a pastor in the Christian church—his other calling. At least he made something out of his life, but it's not the career path the Packers were hoping he'd take when they spent their first-round pick on him.

2007 NFL Draft – Oakland Raiders Select QB JaMarcus Russell

In 2006, the Raiders stunk. The franchise found themselves in a precarious position, needing some new blood to light a fire in Oakland.

Their 2006 season had been a disaster, marked by poor quarterback play from a revolving door of journeymen that resulted in a paltry 7 passing touchdowns and 24 interceptions. Clearly, a change was needed, and the Raiders set their sights on a young man out of LSU who possessed all the physical tools of a franchise quarterback: JaMarcus Russell.

At 6'6, 220 pounds with a cannon for an arm, Russell was a tantalizing prospect for a team in need of a savior. He was not regarded as a polished quarterback, but just look at the man! Surely, you want that guy on your team. Think of Anthony Richardson as his modern-day equivalent.

Russell's impressive resume at LSU, culminating in his status as a finalist for National QB of the Year and a 1st-team All-SEC selection, made him a top prospect in the 2007 NFL draft.

The Raiders' decision to draft JaMarcus Russell with the 1st-overall pick that year would be one that analysts and fans alike discussed for decades (not in a good way). Despite all of his size and strength, Russell struggled to adapt to the rigors of the NFL. His lack of work ethic and dedication to the game doomed his career relatively quickly.

His short career was a tragic dumpster fire that left the Raiders and their fans reeling. The argument could be made that Raiders Nation has never quite recovered from Russell's epic belly flop back 17 years ago.

JaMarcus Russell Instantly Becomes a Bust

It normally takes a few years before we can write someone off as a bust. Heck, Aaron Rodgers didn't even see the field until his 4th year. Sometimes, it takes a while for a career to get going. These high-level guys are afforded every opportunity to prove their worth. A lot of capital went into getting them, and no one wants to admit they drafted a dud.

JaMarcus Russell is the exception. Everyone saw through his guise immediately, and Oakland soon began looking for ways to mitigate the damage. Russell showed up to his first OTA (organized team activity) out of shape. He seemed apathetic. Oakland needed him to lead, but Russell seemed more than content to lay back and rest on the $32 million in guaranteed money he had received.

Fat. Lazy. Codeine abuser. QB JaMarcus Russell was all over the headlines before he even played his first preseason game. The Raiders were beginning to wonder if Russell would ever see the field after the #1-overall pick decided to hold out and wage a major contract dispute during training camp, which lingered into the 2007 regular season.

The two parties eventually agreed to a deal, and Russell was very mediocre in limited action in 2007. He threw just 66 pass attempts in his rookie season for 373 yards, 2 TDs, and 4 picks.

Russell was awarded the starting job for the entire 2008 season. He didn't earn it, but he was getting paid too much to ride the pine. Russell produced an extremely lukewarm stat line of 2,423 passing yards, a 53.8% completion percentage, 13 passing TDs, 8 picks, and 7 fumbles lost.

By the end of the 2009 season, JaMarcus Russell was out of the league—a 3-year career from someone with one of the most athletic builds in football.

The Raiders Set Themselves Back for Years with the JaMarcus Russell Pick

Several years after the fact, key figures from the Raiders organization admitted to having their doubts about Russell, but no one felt confident enough at the time to speak up and sway the room to draft someone else.

Then Raiders Head Coach Lane Kiffin (now coaching at Ole Miss) said he wanted to take wide receiver Calvin Johnson. Johnson would go on to have a Hall-of-Fame career and break Jerry Rice's single-season receiving yards record.

It really didn't matter who Oakland would have taken in lieu of Russell. Any player on the board would have provided more value to the team than one of the greatest draft busts in league history.

The opportunity-cost factor is a big one. By wasting their #1-overall pick in 2007, the Raiders missed out on talented players like the aforementioned Johnson (Hall of Famer), Joe Thomas (finalist for Hall of Fame), Patrick Willis (finalist for Hall of Fame), Darrelle Revis (finalist for Hall of Fame), Adrian Peterson, and Marshawn Lynch.

Heck, the Raiders would have even been in better shape reaching down and taking tight end Zach Miller first overall. Miller would wind up being Oakland's 2nd-round pick that year. He made a Pro Bowl in 2010.

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