NFL Rookie Receiving Yards Betting: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Joins a Talented Corps

Via the 2023 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks added Jaxon Smith-Njigba to an already deep offensive skill group.

Just like that, the Pacific Northwest boasts one of the most dynamic receiving corps in the NFL. Playmakers like D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have a proven track record of stretching opposing defenses, and Smith-Njigba is exactly the kind of receiver that can reap the benefits of everything else in between.

When it comes to rookies, the wide receiver position -- especially compared to quarterbacks -- has proven most immediately ready for the NFL in recent years. Smith-Njigba is coming from Ohio State, which is obviously one of the best college football programs in the nation. On paper, he seems like a cohesive fit with Geno Smith to start contributing right out of the gate, but can JSN lead all rookies in receiving yards this upcoming campaign?

Looking at the NFL rookie odds market on FanDuel Sportsbook, Smith-Njigba sits at +300 to produce the most regular season rookie receiving yards in 2023-24, which is the second-best odds in the market after Jordan Addison (+230) of the Minnesota Vikings.

High-End Production

In recent years, we have seen some mammoth performances to cash the aforementioned market. Over the past five seasons, Garrett Wilson (1,103 yards in 2022), Ja'Marr Chase (1,455 yards in 2021), Justin Jefferson (1,400 yards in 2020), A.J. Brown (1,051 yards in 2019) and Calvin Ridley (821 yards in 2018) all led fellow rookies in receiving yardage. I believe Smith-Njigba is capable of this level of production volume.

A perpetual wide receiver factory, Ohio State has always featured some of the game's most glorious pass catchers. All that considered, it is quite impressive to review JSN's resume of Buckeye records. To date, Smith-Njigba's 2021 campaign stands out as one of the greatest in college football history. He set Ohio State's single-season receptions (95) and receiving yardage (1,606) records while also earning the school's single contest marks in the same categories.

Of course, his famous 2022 Rose Bowl versus Utah will forever live in football lore; Smith-Njigba collected a record 15 catches for a record 347 yards and 3 touchdowns. Production like that has no ceiling.

A Favorable Spot

Smith-Njigba is headed to a team that showcased a top-10 passing attack in 2022. Quarterback Geno Smith delivered a career year, producing 30 touchdowns and 4,282 passing yards behind an NFL-best completion clip of 69.8%. The Seahawks feature talent at all offensive skill positions, and Smith was sure to utilize everyone. He found Lockett for nine touchdowns and Metcalf for six in 2022; both star wideouts went for over 1,000 receiving yards.

Also in the receiving corps, Seattle employs a dynamic tight end with Noah Fant, who essentially served as the cherry on top of exchanging Russell Wilson to Denver Broncos. Fant is a fantastic blocker in addition to possessing great receiving and yards-after-catch skills. Additionally, the backfield is youthful with the likes of Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet.

All this is to highlight that Smith-Njigba will be left with advantageous matchups on a weekly basis. Currently, JSN is listed as Seattle's starting slot receiver heading into training camp. From there, he will be able to use the entire field to beat opposing secondaries as they are occupied with veteran threats on the outside.

Also, Seattle likes play action; the Seahawks utilized it ninth-most in the NFL last year. With 23% of Smith's passes coming on play action, the aforementioned running game will be vital in getting JSN an extra bit of separation. Having thrived in Ryan Day's pro-style passing attack at Ohio State, Smith-Njigba should fit in magnificently in the Emerald City. JSN is in the right unit to flourish.

Smith-Njigba's 2023 Outlook

Smith-Njigba is widely recognized as one of the best receivers in the 2023 NFL rookie class. As mentioned, he yields the second-best odds (+300) to log the most regular-season rookie receiving yards in 2023-24. In terms of offensive rookie of the year betting, Smith-Njigba has +1400 odds to win at FanDuel Sportsbook. Those are the sixth-shortest in the market -- and best among all receivers. Given the proven veterans surrounding Smith-Njigba in Seattle, the rookie should draw single coverage quite often. He will have bountiful opportunities to thrive in the Pacific Northwest. One thing should be certain -- Seattle's offense will have plenty of electricity in 2023.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.