NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 4/20/24

The NBA Playoffs are here and there are plenty of betting options available via the NBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

However, between player props, point spreads, moneylines, and totals, sifting through all the odds can feel like an overwhelming task.

Thankfully, various advanced statistics can narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers

Evan Mobley Over 2.5 Assists (-140)

A slate-low 207.5 over/under for this Orlando Magic-Cleveland Cavaliers clash doesn't lend itself well to the player prop market.

That's what happens when two teams both ranked in the top 10 in defensive rating and bottom 10 in pace square off.

But Orlando's stout defense -- one predicated on wreaking havoc (second in forced turnovers per 100 possessions) -- will likely force Evan Mobley to be a playmaker, especially in the pick and roll.

He acknowledged that.

That's what happened when Mobley and the Cavs faced the Magic in February. Despite losing the game, Mobley finished with six assists. He dished out only two dimes in the other game he played against Orlando, but the third-year big is accustomed to setting up his teammates.

Mobley's increased his assist average each of his first three years in the NBA, up to 3.2 per game this season. That number's ticked up to 3.6 at home, and it's grown to 3.8 since the All-Star break. In 20 games over the second half, Mobley racked up at least three assists 13 times.

Our projections have Mobley at 2.9 assists for Game 1 of the playoffs.

His recent track record, coupled with a favorable projection, puts Evan Mobley in a nice spot to go over his assist prop, currently set at 2.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves

Suns +2.0 (-110)

The Phoenix Suns went a perfect 3-0 against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the regular season.

The Timberwolves dropped three of four against the Suns last season, too. They lost the one game against Phoenix when Kevin Durant was in the lineup last season.

For his career, Wolves star Anthony Edwards is just 2-11 against the Suns. He failed to score 20 points against them in all three regular-season meetings, averaging a mere 14.3 points per game on 31.0% shooting.

Yet Minnesota is favored by 2.0 in Game 1.

It makes sense -- the Wolves finished seven games up on the Suns and had the fifth-best home record in the NBA (30-11).

But I just can't help but take Phoenix getting two here. This is a matchup they thoroughly dominated in the regular season, winning all three games by double-digits with an average margin of victory of 15.7 points.

Granted, two of those wins came in Phoenix, but the Suns' biggest W over the Wolves came in Minnesota just last week.

The other two wins were nearly as impressive. Phoenix's 133-point outburst in November ended up being the most points the Wolves allowed all season. In their April 5th win, the Suns held Minnesota to 87 points, their lowest-scoring game of the year.

Does that make this spread a little fishy? Absolutely. But I can't pass up getting points with a Phoenix side that's dominated this matchup so thoroughly the last few seasons. Given their regular-season success against Minnesota, I'd certainly consider Suns moneyline (+110), too.

Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks

Tobias Harris Under 13.5 Points (-115)

With reports that Tobias Harris is nearing the end of his tenure with the Philadelphia 76ers, I'm more than happy to fade his points prop against a stout New York Knicks defense.

New York (ninth in defensive rating) kept Harris under 13.5 points in all four regular-season meetings. In fact, they held him to single digits in three of four matchups.

The two most recent matchups between these division rivals combined saw Harris go 6-of-20 from the floor and finish with 13 total points.

Because of that, I wouldn't be shocked to see Sixers coach Nick Nurse ease Harris' minutes, as well. He notably sat the final four minutes of their Play-In win over Miami after scoring just 9 points on 4-of-10 shooting in his 33 minutes of action.

Granted, he's still seeing starters' minutes, and his poor production against New York hasn't come due to a lack of effort but rather a lack of efficiency.

But that's what this Knicks team does. In 23 games with OG Anunoby this season, the Knicks had a 107.8 defensive rating. That would've led the league over the full season.

It doesn't hurt that this Sixers-Knicks matchup has a measly 209.0 over/under, nor that Harris' usage rate has dropped 2.1% with Joel Embiid active this season, per RotoGrinders CourtIQ.

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic To Record A Triple Double (+125)

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets will match up with the Los Angeles Lakers in the playoffs for the second year in a row.

Last year's meeting came in the Western Conference Finals, and it saw Jokic average 27.8 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 11.8 assists en route to a 4-0 Nuggets sweep. Jokic recorded a triple-double in three of four games, including both in Denver.

Though Jokic "only" recorded a triple-double in one of three regular-season meetings with LA this season, he wasn't far off in the other two. Across those three games, Jokic averaged 29.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game. That's just par for the course for the league's fourth all-time leader in triple-doubles.

Jokic finished second with 25 triple-doubles this season after leading the league with 29 last year and 19 in 2021-22.

He recorded an additional 10 triple-doubles in 20 postseason games last season.

So, while the Lakers have generally held their own against centers, Jokic is in a nice spot to record a triple-double in Game 1. LA dipped to 23rd in defensive rating over the second half of the season, but they jumped up to second in pace.

Over that same post-All-Star break span, Jokic upped his own numbers to 27.0 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game.

With this Lakers-Nuggets clash having Saturday's highest over/under (224.0), Jokic should have plenty of chances to fill up the box score. Getting him at +125 odds to record a triple-double (44.4% implied odds) is nice value for someone who did so in 50% of his postseason games last year.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.