Madrid Open Betting Picks: Wednesday 5/1/24

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Madrid Open Betting Picks: Wednesday 5/1/24

The tennis clay season continues as we work our way to the 2024 French Open in late May.

The Madrid Open is underway, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Madrid Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value in Wednesday's matches? Note that play begins at 6:00 am ET due to a six-hour time difference.

Madrid Open Best Bet

Mirra Andreeva vs. Aryna Sabalenka

Over 2.5 Total Sets (+118)

If you glanced at just their rankings, this would look like a clear mismatch between world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka and world No. 43 Mirra Andreeva.

But Andreeva -- who turned 17 years old on Monday -- is a rising star who's already made plenty of noise dating back to last year.

Despite her lack of experience, Andreeva advanced through qualifying at both the French Open and Wimbledon in 2023, reaching the third and fourth rounds, respectively. She also advanced to the fourth round at this year's Australian Open, most notably blowing away one of her tennis idols, Ons Jabeur, in straight sets (6-0, 6-2) to earn her first win over a top-10 opponent.

While her youth has led to plenty of inconsistency -- she entered Madrid with just an 8-5 record -- Andreeva's already showing she can hang with top players when she's at her best, and that's what we've been seeing this tournament. After going three sets in the first two rounds, she's since won in straight sets over a pair of top-20 opponents, Marketa Vonrousova (7th) and Jasmine Paolini (13th).

Andreeva could also be catching Sabalenka at the right time. Not only has Aryna needed to grind out three-setters in all three of her matches here, but she's now gone three sets in six straight matches overall and 10 of her last 13.

Of course, Sabalenka is ranked second for a reason, and coming back from down a set to beat an in-form Danielle Collins in the last round shows she isn't exactly in poor form herself. Collins had last lost a match in early March (against Iga Swiatek) and had since won two straight tournaments. Sabalenka is the defending Madrid Open champion, and let's not forget she won the Australian Open for the second time just a few months ago.

According to Tennis Abstract's model, Sabalenka is showing a 75%-win probability against Andreeva. Additionally, Aryna defeated Mirra in straight sets in their lone meeting last season, which coincidentally was in Madrid. It's safe to say Andreeva is already a better player than she was back then, but it's still a confidence booster for Sabalenka.

Given the opponent, it's hard to pick Andreeva to pull off the upset, but I do think she can keep Sabalenka's recent three-setter streak going, and the plus odds are appealing. Additionally, Over 21.5 Total Match Games (-120) is a viable alternative as a safer play that could still hit in a competitive two-setter.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.