Madrid Open Betting Picks: Thursday 5/2/24

The tennis clay season continues as we work our way to the 2024 French Open in late May.

The Madrid Open is underway, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Madrid Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value in Thursday's matches?

Madrid Open Best Bet

Daniil Medvedev vs. Jiri Lehecka

Medvedev -2.5 Games (-120)

With Jannik Sinner unfortunately withdrawing from the tournament due to injury, we're left with just this match to complete the men's quarterfinals on Thursday. While I have some trepidation backing Daniil Medvedev on his least favorite surface, I like his chances of taking care of business versus Jiri Lehecka.

For one thing, Medvedev's previous disdain for clay courts has seemingly softened with experience, as he was quoted before the tournament saying, “I'm enjoying clay more and more. I have good results, good victories, and I feel like I can do big things on clay.” More importantly, Medvedev won his first-ever clay title (Rome) last season, an especially significant achievement given it was a Masters 1000 event.

The Russian star is still looking for his first title on any surface in 2024, but it's hard to question his overall form as the runner-up at both the Australian Open and Indian Wells during the early hard-courts season. It hasn't been the easiest road to these Madrid quarterfinals, but he's gutted out wins against a trio of top-40 opponents in Matteo Arnaldi, Sebastian Korda, and Alexander Bublik.

Furthermore, it's not like Lehecka loves clay courts, either. He entered the event with just a 12-14 career clay record (46% win rate), and his victories here have been against two qualifiers ranked outside the top 100 and a Rafael Nadal trying to will his body for one last run at the French Open.

The models on Tennis Abstract and Massey Rating firmly back a Medvedev victory, giving him a 77% and 84% win probability, respectively. I like the chances of him covering this modest spread.

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